Every year since 2006, the market share held by Internet Explorer 6 has been plummeting, dropping about 10% per year. This is a good thing, as IE6 creates huge headaches for developers and security risks for end users; for instance, IE6 security exploits were at the heart of the recent security breach with Google in China, which is what got me thinking about this post.

If the downward trend continues, IE6 should be virtually extinct by late 2010 or 2011. However, despite several years of encouraging data, I'm concerned that we're about to hit the floor, with 5% to 10% of users stuck on IE6, and that we won't see the eradication of IE6 for as long as another decade. Further, depending how a few things play out, I think IE6 could actually climb back up to 15% of the global market.

Where is the floor? China.

Currently, China's 384m Internet users account for roughly 22% of the world's 1.7b internet users, and China's Internet usage is exploding, growing 29% in 2009. Even if that growth slows significantly, as it did between 2008 and 2009, China could still account for 30-35% of global Internet users within just a few years.

Why does this matter? Because China (like many developing countries) has dramatically different browser usage patterns than developed countries. I've had trouble finding good aggregate data on browser usage in China, but on one site that I run my analytics show 40% of Chinese visitors using IE6, compared to 10% of our overall visitors. If this is at all indicative of overall browser usage in China, that suggests that the majority of the world's IE6 users are located in one country, a country that is going to have trouble upgrading to modern browsers (and most of the rest are likely in other developing countries facing similar challenges). The rapid growth of Internet usage in China could actually cause IE6 usage to grow over the next few years.

Why is this happening?

There are a number of factors that drive the high rate of IE6 usage in China.

1. As much as 96% of software in China is pirated. If you're running a pirated version of Windows XP, that generally means that you won't get automatic updates, and if you try to run the Windows Update tool you'll probably cancel as soon as you see it downloading the Windows Genuine Advantage tool. While anyone can install IE7 or IE8 manually, even on a cracked XP install, the lack of automated updates likely discourages many users.
2. Inexplicably, when Microsoft released Windows XP Service Pack 3 in 2008, they failed to include Internet Explorer 7. For users of SP3 cracks in China, this means they are still almost certain to start out with IE6 installed and, as noted in #1, are unlikely to upgrade.
3. Windows Vista and the new Windows 7 ship with IE7 and IE8, respectively, but neither has made significant inroads into the Chinese market. Vista is unlikely to make much progress, so until Windows 7 becomes the dominant global choice for Windows AND users in China have a lengthy transitional period (XP has had a very long shelf life) will the default browser for Chinese users be something other than IE6.

How can China be weaned off of IE6?

The one thing that could have the biggest impact on IE6 usage in China would be for Microsoft to release a new service pack for Windows XP that includes IE7 or IE8. I'd go so far as to suggest that they release a cracked version straight into China, viewing secure web browsing as a human rights issue that trumps their anti-piracy efforts, but this is obviously not going to happen. Hopefully, some enterprising cracker will at least decide to custom bundle a modern browser into an SP3 crack. In my recent experiences with technology in SE Asia, malware is so rampant that users frequently reinstall Windows, so a new distribution of XP might actually be adopted surprisingly quickly.

Realistically, however, IE6 will continue to be installed by default in China for many years to come, until Windows 7 takes over the market, which means that the key to upgrading China's browsers will have to be post-installation, meaning popular websites will have to drive the change by directly encouraging or requiring updates and by making the IE6 experience less appealing.

Google, motivated no doubt by the January security breach, has taken a leading role by announcing that they will gradually drop IE6 support this year. There are also some "grassroots" efforts, such as www.ie6nomore.com, which provide code snippets that can be inserted in any website. The inevitable but not quite immanent release of HTML5 will also be crucial - when major websites and web building tools, particularly CMS frameworks like Drupal and Joomla, switch to HTML5, then IE6 support will begin to crumble across the Internet.

However, unless Chinese language sites begin to drop IE6 support, it may not matter what non-Chinese sites are doing. That sort of leadership in China may be quite hard to come by, since so many of their users are on IE6. A classic chicken/egg problem, which may not resolve itself until the long lifespan of Windows XP finally comes to a close.